A slow motion train wreck is still a train wreck.
Against all expectations, shares in banks heavily exposed to commercial-real-estate debt have been on a tear recently. Losses from commercial mortgages could well be large. Even so, investors are betting they'll be bearable, assuming banks will book the losses over time and offset them with earnings from healthier loans. But that convenient scenario may not play out for all banks, leaving investors potentially exposed to shock hits from commercial real-estate exposure.
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